The demise of automotive mechanical engineering?

Will there be a demise of automotive mechanical engineering?

In the 1950 post war world, engineers were poised to change our society with a slide rule in hand. They were quick of mind and what they designed would change the way we lived for ever. 

This was a time where paper and pencils ruled. Where mathematical equations were done in long hand and where what was being designed had never been attempted before. The calculations were done in the mind and there were many minds working on a project. All these different minds brought about many ideas and ultimately new ideas and ways of how to approach a problem. Success was unavoidable because of all the minds which were at work, each seeing the problem a little differently and each seeing a different solution. They would ultimately come together to find the best solution which was a combination of failures, successes, differing points of view and visceral discussion of what was the best way to proceed.

These human symbiotic relationships were real and they literally moved mountains and man to the moon.  This type of engineering went on for over 2 decades with men and women learning how to work on projects and building models of devices they were working on including rocket engines and internal combustion engines. 

  

In time came the computer, at first little more than a toy in the engineering world.  It was slower than the engineers and needed to be programmed in order to do the right work.Humans and engineers had little use for computers because they were toys which took more labour to program than they gave as output.  But there were the select few who saw potential of where the computer could go.  They were the first computer engineers.  They specialised in electrical engineering and worked on improving computer performance.  Some of them later became software engineers and their strength was the ability to visualise how a computer language could be harnessed to make that computer do something it had not done before.  Eventually computers began to work their way into the design and engineering departments of large automotive companies.  They helped take care of the menial tasks, the tedious repetitive tasks which most were not interested in doing on a daily basis.

But now something began to change in the computing world.  Computers were beginning to make generational leaps.  Every few years their speed would double.  This doubling of speed continued  at a break neck pace and the time between doubling became less and less.  While all this was happening there was another  variable which was occurring the cost of this computer speed was becoming less and less.  Computers were becoming more powerful and finally a critical  mass evolved where computers were becoming more of a necessity than a liability.  The cost of buying a more powerful computer became less that that of hiring another human do do more work.  

All the while during this process one other thing was happening to computers.   The size of the computer, and its energy requirements was become smaller and smaller.  

Now powerful  inexpensive computers can be put into almost any device.  They can be put into toasters, microwaves, fridges, freezers, dishwashers, stoves, lighting systems, the list goes on and on.

How does this relate to the world of cars?  This is where what we drive in 2012 is significantly different from what we drove in 2005.  Computer system in cars have been around for decades.  They were basic and prone to problems in the early 1980's.  But by the time the new millennium came around they were solid foundations in engine operating system and transmission.  They allowed designers to program into the vehicles varying parameters which permitted the power-trains to excel in varying conditions.  From cold climates like Alaska to high elevation places like Peru in these computer systems optimise the function of engines and transmissions allowing them to perform at their best while ensuring the vehicles remain reliable and easy to operate in any situation.

This is where computers are taking their next step in the cars we drive.  Over the last decade computer have been stepping into how we drive.  They are bringing us back from the brink of disaster when we make serious errors driving.  Systems such as stability control and vehicle dynamics control are beginning to help us in situations that we don't have enough experience to deal with properly.  These system are exceptional because they are literally saving peoples lives.

But here is where my question lies.  After having driven a 2012 Toyota Sienna for a few weeks I'm seriously wondering if these systems are being used as a shortcut to old fashioned engineering?  Why do companies need to spend time designing certain traits into cars like over steer and under steer.  Why not just tell the computer to do it for us.  It's quick, cheap and as far as I can tell it works.

  The reason I make this note is because while driving the 2012 Toyota Sienna V6 back from a skiing trip I noticed at one point in a very snow covered corner that the vehicle became very tail happy so tail happy I might add that at 45 km/h I noticed that the tail was stepping out on the vehicle while I was driving.  But just as quickly the ESP stepped in and brought the car back straight and clean.  One moment I could feel the vehicle starting to do a major rotation.  Two seconds later the car was back on course.

The next 20 minutes down from the ski hill I pondered how quickly the ESP had reacted.  But driving on the highway for the next 1 1/2 hours my thoughts wondered to how 7 years earlier I had been on the exact same road in a 2005 Dodge Grand Caravan.  I had the same load 5 people on board with all our gear.  The conditions were worse when we went skiing with the Grand Caravan in 2005.  It starting snowing heavily in the morning and by the time we got back to the van there was 2 1/2 feet of snow on the roof.  The road was cleared in 2005 but it had not been sanded like it was in 2012.  It was roughly the same time of day around 4pm and in that exact same corner I was going about 40km/h in the Grand Caravan was well.  Both vehicles I might add had snow tires on them.  But what happened in the Dodge was completely different.  Through the course of the turn in the Dodge Grand Caravan it had heavy under steer.  That is the vehicle wanted to continue going straight.  It was something that was predictable in such a vehicle as a mini van.  Another vehicle which I took to this ski hill in 2008 was a Ford Freestyle which was a front wheel drive vehicle once again with snow tires on it.  The experience  with it was predictable much like the Dodge Grand Caravan.  Too much speed in the snowy conditions brought about under steer which was expected and predictable in a 7 passenger vehicle.

So I come back to my question. Are computer systems being used as a shortcut to engineering in modern vehicles.  My thoughts are beginning to fall more on the yes after my experience.  With a vehicle such as a minivan, if you are to get into a difficult situation I would think that you would set up the vehicle so that it would under steer.  It is a safe and predictable situation for an average driver to deal with.  Whereas the situation where over steer occurs or where the rear of the vehicle come around on the car is much more unpredictable for an average driver and can lead to over compensation on steering and eventually a loss of control.

So has Toyota intentionally designed over steer into the Sienna.  No I don't think they have.  They have designed and set up the Sienna van in a neutral manor.  That is to say it is set up so that it handles well and is predictable in most situations.  But when in comes to extreme situations it behaves unpredictably.  This is where the choice to use inexpensive software comes into play.  Rather than spend engineering time on setting up the vehicle to behave in a certain manor, they let the software take care of the condition because it is inexpensive and overall a reliable choice.  But what if the system fails or if the vehicle is put into a situation where the software system cannot help the vehicle to recover.  That is where the question ultimately lies and where I see the demise of the true automotive mechanical engineer in terms of  mechanical automotive traits.

   

It's an interesting question and something that most people are not asking themselves when they pick up that new car with stability control built into it.  Is the system installed to increase safety or is it really installed because it is less expensive now to put such a system in a car than to spend man hours and engineering time actually designing a car to have all the characteristics that a certain type of vehicle should have.  Ultimately in the future cars will be built on identical platforms, what will define the difference between cars will be the software parameters which are programmed into the vehicle.  These parameters will make one vehicle like a cross over feel sporty to drive because the software is programmed to give that vehicle those characteristics, whereas another vehicle such as a luxury sedan will be programmed to have the utmost comfort but in the end it will be software which defines the driving characteristics not the chassis itself nor the particular components which are bolted to that chassis.